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| Fundamental Analysis |
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| Introduction |
Fundamental analysis is the cornerstone of investing. In fact, some would say that you aren't really investing if you aren't performing fundamental analysis. Because the subject is so broad, however, it's tough to know where to start. There are an endless number of investment strategies that are very different from each other, yet almost all use the fundamentals.
The biggest part of fundamental analysis involves delving into the financial statements. Also known as quantitative analysis, this involves looking at revenue, expenses, assets, liabilities and all the other financial aspects of a company.
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| The Very Basics |
When talking about stocks, fundamental analysis is a technique that attempts to determine a security's value by focusing on underlying factors that affect a company's actual business and its future prospects.
Fundamental analysis serves to answer questions, such as:
1. Is the company's revenue growing?
2. Is it actually making a profit?
3. Is it in a strong-enough position to beat out its competitors in the future?
4. Is it able to repay its debts?
5. Is management trying to "cook the books"? |
| Fundamentals: Quantitative and Qualitative |
You could define fundamental analysis as 'researching the fundamentals'. Fundamentals include anything related to the economic well-being of a company like revenue and profit. The various fundamental factors can be grouped into two categories: quantitative and qualitative. The financial meaning of these terms isn't all that different from their regular definitions.
1. Quantitative: capable of being measured or expressed in numerical terms.
2. Qualitative: related to or based on the quality or character of something, often as opposed to its size or quantity.
Quantitative fundamentals are numeric, measurable characteristics about a business. It's easy to see how the biggest source of quantitative data is the financial statements. You can measure revenue, profit, assets and more with great precision.
Turning to qualitative fundamentals, these are the less tangible factors surrounding a business - things such as the quality of a company's board members and key executives, its brand-name recognition, patents or proprietary technology.
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| Quantitative Meets Qualitative |
Neither qualitative nor quantitative analysis is inherently better than the other. Instead, many analysts consider qualitative factors in conjunction with the hard, quantitative factors. Take the Coca-Cola Company, for example. When examining its stock, an analyst might look at the stock's annual dividend payout, earnings per share, P/E ratio and many other quantitative factors. However, no analysis of Coca-Cola would be complete without taking into account its brand recognition. Anybody can start a company that sells sugar and water, but few companies on earth are recognized by billions of people. It's tough to put your finger on exactly what the Coke brand is worth, but you can be sure that it's an essential ingredient contributing to the company's ongoing success. |
| The Concept of Intrinsic Value |
One of the primary assumptions of fundamental analysis is that the price on the stock market does not fully reflect a stock's 'real' value. In financial jargon, this true value is known as the intrinsic value.
For example, let's say that a company's stock was trading at Rs20. After doing extensive homework on the company, you determine that it really is worth Rs25. In other words, you determine the intrinsic value of the firm to be Rs.25. This is clearly relevant because an investor wants to buy stocks that are trading at prices significantly below their estimated intrinsic value.
This leads us to one of the second major assumptions of fundamental analysis: in the long run, the stock market will reflect the fundamentals. There is no point in buying a stock based on intrinsic value if the price never reflected that value. Nobody knows how long 'the long run' really is. It could be days or years. |
| Criticisms of Fundamental Analysis |
The biggest criticisms of fundamental analysis come primarily from two groups: proponents of technical analysis and believers of the 'efficient market hypothesis'.
Technical analysts base their investments (or, more precisely, their trades) solely on the price and volume movements of securities. Using charts and a number of other tools, they trade on momentum, not caring about the fundamentals. While it is possible to use both techniques in combination, one of the basic tenets of technical analysis is that the market discounts everything.
Accordingly, all news about a company already is priced into a stock, and therefore a stock's price movements give more insight than the underlying fundamental factors of the business itself.
Followers of the efficient market hypothesis, however, are usually in disagreement with both fundamental and technical analysts. The efficient market hypothesis contends that it is essentially impossible to produce market-beating returns in the long run, through either fundamental or technical analysis. The rationale for this argument is that, since the market efficiently prices all stocks on an ongoing basis, any opportunities for excess returns derived from fundamental (or technical) analysis would be almost immediately whittled away by the market's many participants, making it impossible for anyone to meaningfully outperform the market over the long term. |
| Qualitative Factors - The Company |
Fundamental analysis seeks to determine the intrinsic value of a company's stock. But since qualitative factors, by definition, represent aspects of a company's business that are difficult or impossible to quantify, incorporating that kind of information into a pricing evaluation can be quite difficult. On the flip side, as we've demonstrated, you can't ignore the less tangible characteristics of a company. |
| Business Model |
Even before an investor looks at a company's financial statements or does any research, one of the most important questions that should be asked is: What exactly does the company do? This is referred to as a company's business model it's how a company makes money. |
| Competitive Advantage |
Another business consideration for investors is competitive advantage. A company's long-term success is driven largely by its ability to maintain a competitive advantage - and keep it. Powerful competitive advantages, such as Reliance and Infosys brand name, create a moat around a business allowing it to keep competitors at bay and enjoy growth and profits. When a company can achieve competitive advantage, its shareholders can be well rewarded for decades. |
| Management |
Just as an army needs a general to lead it to victory, a company relies upon management to steer it towards financial success. Some believe that management is the most important aspect for investing in a company. It makes sense - even the best business model is doomed if the leaders of the company fail to properly execute the plan.
Every public company has a corporate information section on its website. Usually there will be a quick biography on each executive with their employment history, educational background and any applicable achievements. Don't expect to find anything useful here. Let's be honest: We're looking for dirt, and no company is going to put negative information on its corporate website. |
| Corporate Governance |
Corporate governance describes the policies in place within an organization denoting the relationships and responsibilities between management, directors and stakeholders. These policies are defined and determined in the company charter and its bylaws, along with corporate laws and regulations. The purpose of corporate governance policies is to ensure that proper checks and balances are in place, making it more difficult for anyone to conduct unethical and illegal activities.
Good corporate governance is a situation in which a company complies with all of its governance policies and applicable government regulations (such as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002) in order to look out for the interests of the company's investors and other stakeholders.
Although, there are companies and organizations (such as Standard & Poor's) that attempt to quantitatively assess companies on how well their corporate governance policies serve stakeholders, most of these reports are quite expensive for the average investor to purchase.
Fortunately, corporate governance policies typically cover a few general areas: structure of the board of directors, stakeholder rights and financial and information transparency. With a little research and the right questions in mind, investors can get a good idea about a company's corporate governance.
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| Qualitative Factors - The Industry |
Each industry has differences in terms of its customer base, market share among firms, industry-wide growth, competition, regulation and business cycles. Learning about how the industry works will give an investor a deeper understanding of a company's financial health. |
| Introduction to Financial Statements |
The massive amount of numbers in a company's financial statements can be bewildering and intimidating to many investors. On the other hand, if you know how to analyze them, the financial statements are a gold mine of information.
Financial statements are the medium by which a company discloses information concerning its financial performance. Followers of fundamental analysis use the quantitative information gleaned from financial statements to make investment decisions. The three most important financial statements - income statements, balance sheets and cash flow statements. |
| The Balance Sheet |
The balance sheet represents a record of a company's assets, liabilities and equity at a particular point in time. The balance sheet is named by the fact that a business's financial structure balances in the following manner:
Assets = Liabilities + Shareholders' Equity
Assets represent the resources that the business owns or controls at a given point in time. This includes items such as cash, inventory, machinery and buildings. The other side of the equation represents the total value of the financing the company has used to acquire those assets. Financing comes as a result of liabilities or equity. Liabilities represent debt (which of course must be paid back), while equity represents the total value of money that the owners have contributed to the business - including retained earnings, which is the profit made in previous years. |
| The Income Statement |
While the balance sheet takes a snapshot approach in examining a business, the income statement measures a company's performance over a specific time frame. Technically, you could have a balance sheet for a month or even a day, but you'll only see public companies report quarterly and annually.
The income statement presents information about revenues, expenses and profit that was generated as a result of the business' operations for that period. |
| Statement of Cash Flows |
The statement of cash flows represents a record of a business' cash inflows and outflows over a period of time. Typically, a statement of cash flows focuses on the following cash-related activities:
1. Operating Cash Flow (OCF): Cash generated from day-to-day business operations.
2. Cash from investing (CFI): Cash used for investing in assets, as well as the proceeds from the sale of other businesses, equipment or long-term assets.
3. Cash from financing (CFF): Cash paid or received from the issuing and borrowing of funds.
The cash flow statement is important because it's very difficult for a business to manipulate its cash situation. There is plenty that aggressive accountants can do to manipulate earnings, but it's tough to fake cash in the bank. For this reason some investors use the cash flow statement as a more conservative measure of a company's performance.
The majority of investors and analysts read the balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement but, for whatever reason, the footnotes are often ignored. What sets informed investors apart is digging deeper and looking for information that others typically wouldn't. No matter how boring it might be, read the fine print - it will make you a better investor. |